US Small Cap 2000 (RUT)

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Russell futures point to a gap lower opening on Monday morning, per WaveTech 4-hour chart, but Wavetech's daily RUT (cash market) indicates some recovery, with daily RUT PPM-1 (10-DMA momentum) pointing slightly lower on Monday before shooting up on Tuesday, PPM-2 (21-DMA momentum metric) pointing up Monday and especially strong next Tuesday, and PPM-3 (40-DMA momentum metric) pointing gently up next two sessions. So overall, whatever weakness we see on Monday should reverse into strength overall through at least Wednesday.

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Christopher Cooper May 10, 2024 2:39PM ET

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CPI report on Wednesday will dictate what happens to RUT beyond that in the short term.

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Timothy Technography May 09, 2024 9:59AM ET

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It's too early in session (9:45 AM) to have high confidence in WaveTech charts, as they need more data input after 9:30 to identify inflection points, but RUT daily price pressure momentum (PPM, WaveTech's proprietary momentum metrics) between 10:30 and 11:30, with 15-min. indicating the latter side of that window. Then momentum moves higher, which matches the daily PPMs, where PPM-3 points down (I interpret that being this morning) and PPM-1 and -2 point up today (so overall more bullish day). But between daily and intraday PPM projections, looks like this momentum fades sometime tomorrow afternoon, and Monday is weak, maybe lower price than yesterday/today, but I think a higher low, especially since after that the daily PPMs seem very bullish the next couple sessions. From there maybe consolidation sideways. I've learned to not trust so much exact timing but pay attention to longer period patterns, and the daily still points higher into middle of next week, maybe much longer.

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Timothy Technography May 09, 2024 9:59AM ET

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oops, correction to bad wording: 'but RUT daily price pressure momentum (PPM, WaveTech's proprietary momentum metrics) between 10:30 and 11:30, with 15-min. indicating the latter side of that window.' should read, 'but RUT intraday price pressure momentum (PPM, WaveTech's proprietary momentum metrics) indicates a move down until somewhere between 10:30 and 11:30, with 15-min. indicating the latter side of that window. ' At 10:02, it's looking closer to 11 - 11:20 AM; this projection will adjust over time based on trading, so just an estimate.

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Timothy Technography May 08, 2024 1:12PM ET

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Appears to me at 1 pm that there's a move up coming in about 10-20 minutes that will last till 2 or 3pm (I'm guessing the latter) before another leg down into close. Hard to tell if price will get back down to the low of the day at open, but looks pretty close either way. If the market stayed open later, like after-market, then probably a lower low, but if we only see 30-90 minutes down after a bump up, can't tell either way but not a huge difference. That might be what causes tomorrow's daily chart to look more bullish or perhaps I should say less bearish, meaning a day where momentum swings from bearish to bullish, whether right from open or after some choppy moves both ways, unclear.

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Christopher Cooper May 08, 2024 1:12PM ET

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I’ll buy more TNA tomorrow near the open

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Christopher Cooper May 08, 2024 1:12PM ET

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YINN started out hot and has pulled back which is healthy.

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Timothy Technography May 08, 2024 10:16AM ET

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Right now just past 10 AM, it looks like RUT closes near the low of the day. Tomorrow is less clear, so I'll check back this afternoon between meetings, hopefully around 3:15 or before 2:30 meeting. Since WaveTech has a harder time forecasting shorter timeframe directional changes than those of multiple days and weeks, I'm focused more that WaveTech daily chart is more bullish overall looking out between tomorrow and a week from today, May 15. Then, maybe more sideways consolidation. One thing interesting is Wall St. legend (since 1960s, not one of these millennial newbies) says some bubble will burst around May 15. It's one of those free webinars where his firm tries to sell some paid research subscription, and I haven't looked into it yet, but when I noticed that May 15 is important both to Chaikin--who's got better methodology than most financial research--and WaveTech, I'm interested in what happens then but haven't had time to learn yet.

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Timothy Technography May 08, 2024 10:16AM ET

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I should point out at 10:15 WaveTech 30-minute chart indicates weakness till around 12:30 pm, then a modest recovery, and the 15-minute chart indicates low in first 15 minutes of today or maybe between 10:45 and 11:30 as the momentum metrics slop around in chappy pattern.

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Timothy Technography May 07, 2024 10:48AM ET

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WaveTech 3-hour chart show bullish momentum fading after today, while 2-hour chart indicates tomorrow might be able to go higher, even though there's more cross current momentum then. Daily PPMs indicate cross current today, like maybe a move up then a reversal, and shows all three daily PPMs pointing down tomorrow (bearish tomorrow), but after that, it shows more uptrend. How to read this? Be cautious; assume some downside is coming by tomorrow probably, but I'd still trust the daily over the intraday that the direction continues higher after some brief consolidation.

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Nonh Nboif May 07, 2024 10:03AM ET

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ຂາດເດີ້

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stonck tradah May 03, 2024 1:03PM ET

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fade and fill lol

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Christopher Cooper May 03, 2024 11:16AM ET

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Possibly an end of day rally, but I’m taking 1/3 off the table

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Timothy Technography May 02, 2024 2:50PM ET

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Tomorrow may end up being more of a choppy sideways day than down, given large caps projected to move higher tomorrow. (SPX probably a catchup trade tomorrow, given RUT's outperformance today.), Monday might be similar modest move either way, but Tuesday-Wed. still clearly downside action on daily chart. Pay attention to TLT; it's in an uptrend, but daily says we see selling tomorrow; WaveTech indicates the next best time to buy TLT long is around tomorrow, or if jobs report is bullish, then probably delayed to next week. It seems weird to me though that yields would fall next week into mid May while SPX would too, and then both rise in second half. So either one's wrong, or there's an explanation that's not obvious.

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Timothy Technography May 02, 2024 10:55AM ET

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Around 10 AM EST, and I've added to my June 19 IWM $88-strike put even though there are contradictory indications that price could and probably will go higher today; I just can't figure out when and so planning ahead to move on with my work day tasks. Per yesterday's post, I exited my IWM calls yesterday just after 3pm, so timed that pretty well--because there's downside coming, but only partly clear as to when most likely. The 3-hour (half-day) WaveTech chart says decline begins this afternoon, and the 2-hour (120-min. interval) looks similar but less clear whether decline begins by early afternoon or closer to close, and the daily RUT chart indicators shows 2 momentum metrics ever so slightly down today while the stronger PPM-1 is steeply up. So I'm guessing it's a green day mostly but selling into the close like yesterday, which is the decline that probably triggers deeper selling ahead. More importantly than today, daily RUT points lower Friday through Wednesday, May 8, overall, with a small bounce early next week, looking like Mon. The 3-hour chart also shows bearish tomorrow, but the bounce is projected Mon.-Tues., with downside over second half of next week, but keep in mind 3-hour not that reliable a week out, only 2-3 days at best usually (unless confirmed by other interval charts). Back to daily RUT, it also shows some weakness around next weekend like 3-hour chart but not much for RUT, but it is for SPX, with daily SPX chart indicating a test of April low between May 7-14, and I'm guessing it's around next weekend. The structure of 3 momentum daily charts hint it could be a new low but with higher momentum overall, called positive divergence, or a higher low on both price and momentum, either of which signal to well informed traders to buy the dip and anticipate a relief rally. The weekly charts of SPX and RUT aren't really bullish over second half of May and June overall, a bit up and down, but the daily are more bullish. And some more advanced technical analysts than me think the domestic stock market still has more steam ahead, so I'm inclined to expect a rally after mid May, maybe a week earlier for Russell, especially since the more powerful monthly chart of SPX indicates May and June close higher than prior month's close. (Not enough RUT monthly closes to produce such forecast, as needs 150 data points unless I reset config setting).

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Timothy Technography May 02, 2024 10:55AM ET

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One last thing, the way I manage the uncertainty as to when the reversal happens from up to down this week, is to buy part of my short position (IWM put option) around 10 so as not to miss entry, but then buy another lot of same size at a significantly lower price if index keeps rising today, as some charts, especially 2-hour chart, indicate will happen. That way I have some insurance, probably overpriced, and can add cheaper hedge if RUT/IWM keeps rising today. So, scaling into my hedge.

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